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"Seriously Sarah, just leave me out of this. I fought hard and I loved those men of the Potomac. I know from strategies that work and strategies that keep you on a goddamned bloody lane years longer than you need to be. You’re on the wrong side of history here, just like me. You’re running against goddamned Abe Lincoln. You can’t win this and you shouldn’t."
Obama's campaign said Friday that Obama would appear at a rally at 12:15 p.m. Wednesday at the Indiana State Fairgrounds.
The planned stop _ Obama's second visit to Indiana since the Democratic National Convention and his sixth since May _ was set for one day after Tuesday's second presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn.
A commission made up of Indiana House and Senate members plans to hold a hearing at the Statehouse Wednesday to examine gasoline pricing policies in Indiana.
The Commission on State Tax and Financing Policy is inviting representatives of the petroleum industry, local distributors, consumers and the state attorney general, who investigates consumer complaints. The public can also attend the meeting, although the agenda states that testimony will only be taken from those invited.
McCain Indiana campaign co-chairman Luke Messer said the McCain campaign plans to add paid staff around the state next week. He said the campaign would place tens of thousands of yard signs and work to knock on more than 100,000 doors.
‘‘You can never take anybody's vote for granted, and John McCain has known all along that you have to work to win the vote of every Hoosier,'' Messer said.
In an interview with Fox News, Gov. Sarah Palin criticized Sen. John McCain's decision "to pull campaign resources out of Michigan, saying she and her husband Todd would 'be happy' to campaign in the economically distraught battleground state."Its sad to admit, but Palin is right. Had McCain chosen a viable running mate he would have been afforded the more logical move of sending his vice-president stumping across Michigan, effectively saving the cash but not abandoning presence. Nevertheless, his concession is but another in a long line of demonstrations that show what little faith he places in his own vice-presidential selection.
Palin said that when she read the news, she "fired off a quick e-mail and said, 'Oh come on, do we have to?'"
“This bill is not the bill that I or other Republicans would have chosen, but with a Democrat-controlled Congress, any bill must be a compromise. Possible failure of our economy was not an option.” — Rep. Mark Souder, Republican who voted for the bill.
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“Something needs to be done to shore-up our financial markets, but without many substantive changes and $150 billion in additional spending — I don’t think this is the answer.” — Rep. Baron Hill, Democrat who voted against the bill.
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“This crisis is a decade in the making. It is the result of cynical exploitation within an unregulated industry, and it should be addressed conscientiously and equitably. We should have considered all the viable alternatives to the bailout and deliberated the merits of each course of action in order to strengthen the banks’ balance sheets.” — Rep. Pete Visclosky, Democrat who voted against the bill.
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“My number one priority is to protect our jobs and savings back home, and this bill presented us with the best chance of doing that. I did not take pleasure in voting for this legislation, but the choice before us was stark: either pass this rescue package or do nothing. Doing nothing would have cost us more jobs and billions in retirement savings.” — Rep. Joe Donnelly, Democrat who voted for the bill.
Exactly an hour into the debate, Joe Biden began an answer by saying, "Facts matter, Gwen."Maverick he is not:
To him, maybe. To Sarah Palin, maybe not. The pattern, so far, has been one of Biden presenting facts and Palin countering with… saying stuff. Sometimes she throws in a fact, but mostly she seems to be offering a string of approximate policy positions, encomiums to the American spirit, disputed interpretations of Barack Obama's record and anecdotes from Alaska.
“The current proposal is no panacea. More difficult decisions lie ahead. But it is better than doing nothing, and that is the alternative.”Richard Lugar
“The financial rescue legislation will restore credit flow to homeowners, businesses, farmers and all the people who, by the very nature of their businesses, need to borrow money to maintain their activity and keep employees.”I think this is the first time I can truly agree with both of them.
And what about Indiana? The McCain philosophy appears to be, "if we lose Indiana, we've already lost the election elsewhere". But suddenly, that's not necessarily the case. One can easily see Obama winning Indiana while losing Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. Yet thanks to myopic planning, McCain doesn't even have a single field office in the state. He has ceded Indiana to the Obama machine.You have to love republican stubbornness.
The Indiana Republican Party has been the McCain campaign’s voice in the Hoosier state. State GOP Chairman Murray Clark said McCain is building a strong grassroots campaign in Indiana and that the party will “continue working hard for every vote.”Seriously, who are they trying to kid?
With much of Indiana's attention focusing today on Montagano and his placement on the DCCC's Red to Blue list, I feel it necessary to remind readers that an equally important race is taking place in the IN-04. Democratic challenger Nels Ackerson continues to fight the good fight against incumbent Steve Buyer, an eight term republican blowhard with a knack for petty accusations. Thus, considering what's at stake this election cycle, Ackerson's request for a debate would sound like a logical and necessary step for both candidate's campaigns. Well not if Buyer has anything to do with it. Refusing multiple requests, the Buyer campaign has said and done everything possible-- no matter how ridiculous or deceptive-- to discredit the very thought of standing side by side with his opponent addressing the issues that matter to voters. In a press statement released today, Ackerson sets the record straight:In the press release, Buyer resorted to childish name-calling using words like "whining", "hypocrite", "mean", "shallow", and "bitter" and referred to Ackerson's extensive voter outreach program as "parading around the district."Ackerson is right. Voters deserve better. If you live in the fourth district I urge you to give Buyer a call at the number below. Let's let him know his actions are unacceptable and the voters won't stand for it.
"This type of pettiness and childish rants are unfit for a leader," commented Ackerson.
"Buyer's been increasingly bizarre and belligerent on the campaign trail, making veiled threats to me and members of my staff. He even yelled at one of my high school volunteers at the opening of the Montgomery County Republican office. But this type of language in formal a public statement represents a new low for Buyer," noted Ackerson. "If he weren't our elected representative and we didn't have such serious crises going on these rants would be comical."...
Added Ackerson, "We should be talking about issues that matter to voters instead of these personal attacks. Steve Buyer wants to pretend that we've been skipping debates, and that's laughable. Name the time, Steve. Name the place. We've been waiting. Stop hiding behind half-truths."
Mike Montagano's campaign just got a huge national boost today with the addition of his name to the DCCC's Red to Blue candidate list. Never heard of the Red to Blue program? ActBlue explains:The Red to Blue program highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, and strategic support. These candidates earned a spot in the program by surpassing demanding fundraising goals and skillfully demonstrating to voters that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress.Montagano's challenge to incumbent republican Mark Souder is looking better and better each day. Don't live in the third district but want to do your part in helping to throw Souder out of office? Then I urge you to first check out the Montagano for Congress website and then throw some greenbacks Montagano's way. This race has proven to be Indiana's best opportunity of toppling yet another entrenched republican-- so don't hesitate to help, no matter how small your contribution may be. With a combined effort this race is winnable folks.
The candidates for Indiana’s 9th Congressional District seat will debate October 21st in Jasper.Considering Hill and Sodrel's familiarity with each other's candidacy expect the debate to focus on the economy and hopefully by this time the legislation that has been passed by Congress concerning the bailout. While both candidates opposed yesterday's bailout bill, nonsensical reactions from Sodrel should provide plenty of ammunition for Hill to bury his opponent. Take for example this absurdity:
This is the only planned debate between Democratic Representative Baron Hill, Republican Mike Sodrel and Libertarian Eric Schansberg before Election Day.
“Government acquisition of private enterprises when it occurs by ballot is called socialism. ... When it occurs by bullets (it) is called communism. There is little difference in the end result. The former is just less violent than the latter.”
In Northern Indiana, where voters see Chicago television from Obama's home state of Illinois, Obama led by 17 points fourteen weeks ago and by 5 points six weeks ago; today, Obama leads there by 1.
"When many Bethlehem Steel retirees had their pensions cut, did President Bush provide a helping hand? All I know is that when Stan O'Neal retired from Merrill Lynch, his compensation package was worth $161.5 million."Andre Carson IN-07:
"The economic malpractice of the Bush administration is why our financial markets are in turmoil. This administration's fiscal negligence is why Wall Street was rewarded for doing things wrong while Main Street was punished for doing things right. And now this same inept administration is asking the American public to trust them."Baron Hill IN-09:
"I have been rushed to judgment by the Bush administration before. There hasn't been enough time to evaluate the impacts this legislation would have if enacted or to consider alternatives. Congress deserves time to weigh the benefits and the potential pitfalls of borrowing this money."Voting Aye
"When there are serious people discussing the possibility of another economic depression, it is time to act. The rescue plan was not perfect, but it was necessary. And while no one took any pleasure in voting for it, the alternative -- doing nothing -- is potentially disastrous and therefore unacceptable."
This bailout as proposed is the equivalent of taking out a new credit card and filling it with the debt of old credit cards. That doesn't work for people and it doesn't work for governments. I would have voted against the bill as it stood but for different reasons than those of my opponent. Congressman Mike Pence, under his words "limited government", opposes more regulations on Wall Street and wants more tax breaks for the wealthy, and that is why he voted no. I believe we need stricter regulations and a tax break for the 95% of us who are not wealthy, and that is why I would have voted no. There were few explanations as to where the original money went, and where the proposed 700 billion dollars in replacement funds would be directed. All expenditures would be at the Treasury Secretary's discretion, and that is not a good enough explanation of who will benefit for me, or the American people.To read the op-ed in its entirety check out Welsh's post over at Blue Indiana.
"I will continue supporting efforts to pass legislation to restore credit flow to homeowners, businesses, farmers and all the people who, by the very nature of their businesses, need to borrow money to maintain their activity and keep employees," Lugar said Friday. "Failure to pass such legislation would lead to massive unemployment and failure of small business and farming operations in Indiana. That is unacceptable."And just in case anyone needed further proof of the shear absurdity of Pence's position, consider his defense:
"If you came here because you believe in limited government and the freedom of the American marketplace, vote in accordance with those convictions," Pence wrote.Nevermind such a position amounts to yet more tax breaks for big business with no mention of average taxpaying hoosiers. How the rest of the Indiana congressional delegation will vote is still up in the air, but rest assured answers will be forthcoming as congress is set to vote on the bill sometime today.
He had argued that the plan should include tax cuts for capital gains and for corporations that bring home overseas profits. Pence said that would free "trapped capital" to deal with the liquidity crisis.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Saturday called Republican rival John McCain out of touch with middle-class Americans, telling supporters that the GOP senator never once uttered the words "middle class" during their first debate.
"Through 90 minutes of debate, John McCain had a lot to say about me, but he didn't have anything to say about you," Obama told a cheering crowd at the J. Douglas Galyon Depot in downtown Greensboro. "He didn't even say the words 'middle class.' He didn't even say the words 'working people.'" [...]
"Just as important as what we heard from John McCain is what we didn't hear from John McCain," Obama said. "We talked about the economy for 40 minutes and not once did Sen. McCain talk about the struggles of middle-class families. Not once did he talk about what they are facing every day here in North Carolina and across the country."
John McCain, celebrating himself as a maverick, reinventing his voting record, and name-dropping world leaders, simultaneously re-exhibited his enduring ignorance of the cultural dynamics that led to his misjudgment on Iraq in the first place. Senator Obama, at least gave a little nuanced oxygen to the conversation in his statement that Ahmadinejad may not be the most powerful man in theocratic Iran -- an often mis-advertised political and cultural evaluation.I too share his post-debate mood. Thus I feel its important for Obama to regroup, chalk this debate up as a wash, and set his sights on the next debate with a fire in eyes. Being nice and polite are one thing, but the fact of the matter is, its not what the voters want to hear right now. Instead they need a leader willing to stand up and forcefully defend the democratic ideals that are so fundamental to our country and to our party. If Obama does this, I don't think McCain has an answer.
The result is another frustrating piece of American media that is at once far too polite, and at the same time, dismissive of an American public's need to know anything beyond jingoistic self-aggrandizement.
John McCain needed a clear victory tonight. I think a tie was not in his interest. He is behind. And this is his best subject night ... I think he needed a clear victory tonight and that eluded him.
"Responsible homeowners and hardworking American taxpayers should be the beneficiaries of this rescue package, not irresponsible lenders and greedy corporate executives. To reward the wrong, at the expense of the right, sends the wrong message and does nothing to help the hardworking American taxpayer in need of relief and urgent assistance.Is incentivized a real word?
"As negotiations progress, I will continue to call on the Congressional Leadership and Bush Administration to draft a more inclusive package that provides property tax relief through enhanced deductions and incentivized tax credits. The incorporation of more mortgage relief provisions and the inclusion of improved taxpayer protections will increase our economic productivity and safeguard the financial interests of hardworking Americans."
Geologist Chuck Knox is seeking the mineral rights under 2,000 acres of airport property to drill for oil.All I know is that if Knox strikes it rich, I am going to eat my hat and be the first person to offer up my backyard for more drilling. All this talk about soaring gas prices from both Daniels and Long Thompson and the solution is right beneath us-- give me a break people. Ft. Wayne? Do they realize this is Indiana we are talking about? We have corn and soybeans and high school basketball. Not oil--right?
"We'd be foolish to at least not take a look," airport executive director Torry Richardson told The News-Sentinel.
Knox said his company was focusing on gas and oil fields in Indiana that have been unprofitable until the price of oil climbed above $100 a barrel.
"This isn't about geology. It's about economics," he said.
Two sources familiar with the media-buying plans say the Republican National Committee is set to spend six figures shoring up John McCain in the traditionally Republican state of Indiana.Update 6:39 pm: Somehow I missed this earlier, but Kos once again chimes in on McCain's Indiana inaction (before news of the RNC buy broke):
The RNC's independent expenditure arm — which is outside the direct control of the campaign or the committee — has placed a $100,000 buy with WISH-TV in Indianapolis, the CBS affiliate in the capital, one source said. Two sources said the buys across the state start on Tuesday, Sept. 30.
With a little love, McCain might pull Indiana safely out of play, but they're operating under the theory that if they've lost Indiana, they've already lost enough states to lose the election. Given how tight the other "tipping point" states are, and how fiercely they are being contested, ignoring Indiana may prove to have been a bad call when all's said and done.
Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.Unbelievable. Worst political stunt in the history of political stunts. Need I remind you this was a the campaign line as recently as Wednesday:
If there's no deal before the debate, McCain is staying in Washington, period, a McCain senior adviser tells NBC News.So go the polls. So go the media. So goes McCain. Its as simple as that folks. When disdain over the debate suspension became too evident, McCain reversed track and flip-flopped.
1. Returns to Vietnam and jails himself.I would like to add:
2. Offers the post of "vice vice president" to Warren Buffett.
3. Challenges Obama to suspend campaign so they both can go and personally drill for oil offshore.
4. Learns to use computer.
5. Does bombing run over Taliban-controlled tribal areas of Pakistan.
6. Offers to forgo salary, sell one house.
7. Sex-change operation.
8. Suspends campaign until Nov. 4, offers to start being president right now.
9. Sells Alaska to Russia for $700 billion.
10. Pledges to serve only one term. OK, half a term.
"The average income's tumbling. In the Hoosier state, down $4,000 ... while the price of everything from gas to groceries has gone through the roof," Biden said. "We've seen this movie before and, folks, you all know the sequel is always worse than the original."
Barack Obama is committed to hosting a public, televised event Friday night in Mississippi even if John McCain does not show up, an official close to the Obama campaign tells the Huffington Post.This is great stuff. Its hard to wonder just how/what the McCain people were thinking when they hatched this grand campaign suspension ploy, but I think at this point even they realize how bad its backfiring. Nevertheless, part of me really really wants McCain to be a no show. The thought of seeing Obama on stage, doing a townhall or one-on-one interview with millions watching across the country, is just too perfect. McCain can't be that stupid though, can he?
In McCain's absence, the Senator is willing to make the scheduled debate a townhall meeting, a one-on-one interview with NewsHour's Jim Lehrer, or the combination of the two, the official said.
The Indiana troops were guarding an Iraqi water plant and were told the orange, sand-like dust spread throughout the facility was a mild irritant. It was later revealed to be the toxic compound that poisoned more than 600 people in California, the incident depicted in the movie, Erin Brockovich.They were told the substance was merely a mild irritant? Am I the only one outraged by this? Well it seems at least one other person shares my concern, because in a move that should be commended, Senator Evan Bayh has requested the Army investigate the entire exposure incident.
... the Democrats have only carried the state of Indiana four times since 1892 -- during the routs that were 1912 (Wilson v. Taft v. T. Roosevelt), 1932 (F. Roosevelt v. Hoover), 1936 (F. Roosevelt v. Landon) and 1964 (Johnson v. Goldwater -- meaning that they have lost the state even while winning the presidency eight times in the past 115 years. Even more to the point, no Democrat in the last 30 years has received more than 41.55 percent of the vote in the state, with the average Democratic showing during that time period of 39.09 percent. In short, Indiana is generally infertile ground for Democrats on the presidential level, so news of even the Republicans considering the state to be in play is rather noteworthy.
This comes after weeks of denying that Indiana was worth any effort, and after conservative confidence that Palin's pick would seal the deal (like it apparently has in states like Alaska and North Dakota).
Just think, this is a 21-point Bush blowout state. Playing with the dKos Political Scoreboard, that would be like Obama playing defense in New York (Kerry +18), Vermont (Kerry +20), or ... oh, perfect -- Rhode Island (Kerry +19, 60-39).
Say what you will about Evan Bayh, but his father Birch surely goes down as one of the great Hoosier politicians of all time. The details:Former Indiana Senator Birch Bayh, father of current Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, will be speaking in Bloomington Thursday afternoon.Its easy to forget considering all of Bayh's legislative accomplishments, but perhaps his most lasting act while in office was nearly a tragedy. His ability to pull the badly injured Senator Ted Kennedy out of the wreckage of a plane that had crashed while both were aboard, not only proved Bayh was a force to be reckoned with, but because of his actions, provided all Democrats a chance to marvel a liberal lion in the Senate for the last 46 years. If there was ever a politician worth voting for, Birch Bayh takes the cake.
Indiana University says the elder Bayh, an alum of the IU School of Law, will be speaking about the separation of church and state at the IU Law School Moot Court Room Thursday at 3:30.
Bayh is known for being a long-time senator from 1962 to 1980, and helped author the 25th and 26th Amendments which dealt with presidential succession and lowering the voting age to 18 respectively.
With our economy in crisis, the US Government is scrambling to rescue our banks by purchasing their "distressed assets", i.e., assets that no one else wants to buy from them. We figured that instead of protesting this plan, we'd give regular Americans the same opportunity to sell their bad assets to the government.
The Barack Obama campaign announced Monday that Biden will speak at an afternoon rally in Warder Park. Tickets to the public event were being distributed by Obama campaign offices in Jeffersonville and New Albany today.Just so everyone's clear of the tally-- after tomorrow's rally, Biden will have been in Indiana twice as much John McCain. Unreal.
Democrats have a clear edge on GDP growth: 4.4% vs. 2.6%
With only few exceptions, Republican administrations have presided over increases in unemployment, and Democrats over declines. On average, the jobless rate has risen by 1.0 points under the GOP, and fallen by 1.9 points under Dems
This is enemy action. This is a bullet deliberately fired into the economy by men willing to exercise their ideology regardless of the cost to taxpayers. Men who have every expectation that they can plunder the system again and again, while the public picks up the tab. John McCain may not have had his finger directly on the trigger, but he was there. He assisted. These were his personal friends and philosophical comrades. He may not be the high priest, but he has been a loyal acolyte in the cult of deregulation.Its time for Democrats to stand up and lead. No more bipartisan press releases. No more ambiguous analogies expressing a shared desire to fix the problem. Its time for someone to step and offer up a responsible alternative to the Bush proposal.
It may come as a surprise to the champions of deregulation, but nobody likes regulation. The restrictions that were placed on banks, S&Ls, and other institutions in the 1930s weren't put there because someone thought it would be fun. They were put in place because they addressed problems that had just been clearly and painfully revealed. They were put in place because they were necessary.
It's bad enough if John McCain didn't know that. It's far worse if he did.
I have been rather quiet about the whole financial crisis fiasco, preferring to first educate myself on the subject before making any generalized comments on the matter. While I do intend to give my take on the subject in a post later today, suffice it to say everyone and their mother has an opinion on what needs to be done to prevent complete economic collapse. The latest, Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh and his evaluation: “There’s a consensus that we have to do what it takes to avoid a catastrophe. This is economic triage; we need to stabilize the patient. Then we can come up with a long-term prognosis and steps that need to be taken for a cure. When you’re trying to keep a patient’s heart beating and they are on the table, you deal with that first. But we must also maintain the sense of urgency to address the long-term changes that need to be made. The way Congress too often works is that there will be tremendous urgency to act in the short run, then all of the different interests who have a stake in not changing their ways will start circling to prevent systemic reform. The taxpayers and homeowners who are paying their mortgages have a right to be outraged if that happens. This crisis shows that what goes around comes around. Times were good, greed triumphed over fear, people leveraged up trying to make all that they could, and now we’re paying for it.”In typical fashion, Bayh makes it a point to tip-toe around-- making sure to use sweeping bipartisan remarks that while politically neutral, do little to address the issue at hand. I know this is thin ice we are talking about, but is a little backbone from our elected Dems too much to ask for?
While the blogosphere has been tossing around the possibility of an Obama win for sometime now, it seems the national media has finally bought into the reality presently encompassing Indiana presidential politics. And not just any national media either, but the establishment of the establishment elite, TIME magazine.The key factor driving the desire for political change here is economic pain — even in traditional Republican bastions like Elkhart County, in the state's Northeast corner, where the closure of several RV plants has pushed the unemployment rate to 9.3%. Even incumbent Republican governor Mitch Daniels is presenting himself as an agent of change.All this may or may not just be wishful thinking on the part of restless Bloosiers. No one can truly be sure. However one thing I do know for certain is that I have spent a lot of time phone banking, and for what its worth, a large portion of the people I speak with are still on the ropes. And when it comes down to it, and undecideds openly seek out a candidate who will help them personally, I like Obama's chances at winning these voters over.
...But Obama has other factors working in his favor: His campaign has built an extensive grassroots network with 32 field offices in the state. He is familiar to voters in Indiana's Northwest corner, which falls within the Chicago media market. And he is also expected to perform well in Indianapolis, given its large black population. Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita expects 65% voter turnout — the highest since 1992 — largely because of more than 230,000 newly registered voters, many of them signed up by the Obama campaign in college towns such as West Lafayette, South Bend and Bloomington. Obama has visited the state five times since July.
When you have seven homes, that's a lot of garages to fill. After the fuss over the number of residences owned by the two presidential nominees, NEWSWEEK looked into the candidates' cars. And based on public vehicle-registration records, here's the score. John and Cindy McCain: 13. Barack and Michelle Obama: one.The McCain campaign can't seem to catch a break. Keep up the good work.
As the founder of the blogosphere's most lively town square - a place where Americans come to debate ideas, discuss policy, and yes, plot to "crash the gates" - Markos has already permanently altered the landscape of American politics. DailyKos and the progressive blogosphere have inspired a new generation of American patriots, determined to rise up and make their voices heard. In Taking on the System, Markos provides both a call-to-arms, and the rules of engagement, for getting active in our newly networked age. With passionate and accessible prose guaranteed to inspire and empower anyone who has ever struggled to make a difference, this book captures the spirit of our nation's modern-day pamphleteers.
And the bit about getting into people’s faces - that’s right in line with the mindset of the baggy pants wearing crowd. Get into their face, maybe wave a shank or shiv, flash some signs.Are you serious? Does Hoosier Access not accept the reality that Hoosier voters are smarter than this? I mean smearing Obama is one thing, but when you stoop to the level of racist bigot, I am afraid to say whatever credibility you once had is lost forever. Congrats Hoosier Access, your efforts have earned you idiot of the week honors.
You’ll see change in January if the Presidential limo starts sporting spinner wheels, fuzzy dice, and a BOOMING subwoofer mounted in the trunk blasting Ludacris. That change, is what will be left in your pocket after the Government gets done shaking you down for every last dollar you have.
"Irresponsible lending practices and risky financial ventures by some of our nation's leading monetary institutions have led to record foreclosures and plummeting homes values. In order to avert further turmoil, it is imperative that the Administration and Congress work in a bipartisan and bicameral fashion to address our nation's pressing credit crisis through the implementation of a comprehensive and bipartisan rescue package."
As you can see above, the trend line had steadily worked its way towards McCain over a three month period, until a week or so ago when it seemed to bottom-out and and sharply shift back towards Obama. And to those critics who argue its merely statistical noise, the site's contributors explain:Let's not equivocate too much here. Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trendline estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.Anyhow, I think its safe to say we have all slept better this week, especially considering the state of the race immediately following the republican convention. Moreover, it looks like the Obama campaign knew what it was doing when, despite falling numbers, it refused to panic-- which in my opinion is more comforting than any poll yet released.
Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama's lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.
....the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.
The Obama campaign still has work to do to get closer to the 48-49 percent range in which victory is more clearly visible on the horizon -- where they don't have to rely on the support of the vast majority of the undecided voters, which they are highly unlikely to get -- but for now they cannot be too unhappy with the state of the race in Indiana, which John Kerry lost by more than 20 points just four years ago. As we saw during the Indiana primary back in May, Obama has a strong organization in the state, which is certainly helped by the fact that Illinois, and Chicago in particular, are very close by, so if they can get close to the cusp of majority support in Indiana they just might be able to pull of a real shocker.
Rasmussen ReportsAnd...
500 likely voters w/ MoE +/-4.5%
Sept. 17-18
Daniels 56%
Long Thompson 40%
Seltzer & Co.It's hard to tell which one of these is more accurate. But I imagine the real number is somewhere between the two. Regardless, the Star/WTHR poll should do wonders for Long Thompson's campaign morale, and if anything should help to shore up much needed financial support across the state. Its clear she still has a long way to go in winning over hoosier voters though, as is evident from those willing to ticket-split in November:
600 likely voters w/ MoE +/-4%
Sept. 14-16
Daniels 46%
Long Thompson 42%
Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels holds a four-point lead in his bid for a second term, including support from one in five voters who plan to back Democrat Barack Obama for president...
Slightly more than 20 percent of Obama's supporters said they plan to vote for the governor.
Rasmussen ReportsLittle news here. The updated Indiana averages look as follows:
500 likely voters w/ MoE +/-4%
9/18/08
Obama 47%
McCain 49%Undecided 4%
When will McCain wise up and realize he has a legitimate fight on his hands? Hopefully not until its too late.
Baron Hill 202-225-5315Because as a progressive community, reminding Hill where we stand on this issue is the least we can do.
Obama 43.2%With each of the three polls looking marginally different, which one should be taken more seriously? Your guess is as good as mine. But in an effort to help gauge the overall polling picture I have compiled all the numbers and provided the average result-- which may in the end be the best indication of where Indiana currently stands.
McCain 46.7%
Undecided 5.1%
Star/WTHR Seltzer & Co.If this doesn't cement the reality of Indiana as a legitimate swing state than I don't know what else will. Outspent and unconcerned, McCain and co. continues to forgo the possibility of a red to blue swing-- all in the wake of an Obama campaign who has purchased nearly $300,000 in media buys and has opened up 30+ offices across the state.600 likely voters MoE +/- 4%
Obama 47%McCain 44%Undecided 6%
The poll showed Hoosier voters are more confident in Obama's ability to handle the economy, with 44 percent saying he is best equipped to bring new jobs to Indiana, compared with 30 percent for McCain.
[....]
"I'm looking for somebody who is not going to tax the middle class to death, and end high-priced gas," said Hopkins, a self-described Democrat and stay-at-home mom.What's more, McCain's overconfidence in Indiana may ultimately be his downfall.
Luke Messer, co-chairman of McCain's Indiana campaign, said he's confident the Arizona senator will win in Indiana.
"Other polling has us ahead, and that's where we believe the race is," Messer said. "Obviously, Barack Obama has spent millions and millions of dollars and has had staff here for months and months, and the question would be: Why isn't he doing better?"
