Saturday, September 6, 2008

Polling and Electoral Madness

Real Clear Politics does a nice job of doing the dirty work of election poll number crunching.

As of today Obama enjoys a slight edge but the gap continues to shrink as the momentum of the republican convention draws to a close. These numbers should be looked upon favorably by democrats though, as the talk of the town--'the Palin effect'-- has run its course pushing McCain's numbers only back to where they stood prior to the Dem's convention, effectively making the last two weeks a wash. But as the media begins to dig into Palin and the public at large becomes more educated to her Alaskan misfires, I suspect this bounce to backfire, and we will see Obama's numbers slowly creep back up.

While the polling data isn't where many of us would like it to be, in the end its the most we could have hoped for after what has proven to be a very successful Republican convention. 

And the fun doesn't stop there...Taking a further plunge into the prediction madness, its helpful to put a face to what the above numbers mean nationally. Thankfully RCP takes care of this for us as well.
And looky there-- Indiana sits amongst the swing states that will decide this year's election. McCain has consistently led in polling here, but his numbers have shrunk dramatically as the Obama campaign has dumped resources into the state, convinced they have a shot at pulling off an historic upset. For once I agree. Lets help to insure Indiana swings blue this November and keep up the hard work fellow Bloosiers. If you had predicted to to any of the political pundits three months ago that McCain would hold a meager 4.7% lead in Indiana heading into September they would have laughed in your face. Lets be sure to prove them wrong yet again and win this thing. Its certainly within our grasps.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Breaking: Palin's Convention Speech Leaked to Press

Thank you Laughing Liberally.



Election Forecast

If the presidential election were held today it might shake out something like this. Be reminded though this map reflects polling done prior to either party convention, thus post-convention surges haven't been taken into consideration.

Obama vs. McCain828.GIF.gif

Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more 
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5% 
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5% 
Lean Red (44): McCain +2.6%-+7.5% 

Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more)

Electoral College: Obama 260, McCain 206, Toss-up 72 

National popular vote: Obama 46.5%-44.9% McCain
         / Margin: Obama +1.6%

For complete forecast analysis jump over to OpenLeft.